We consider the VaR associated with the global loss generated by a set risk sources. We propose a sequence of simple models incorporating progressively the notions of contagion due to instantaneous correlations, of serial correlation, of evolution of the instantaneous correlations, of volatility...

In this paper we propose an approach to Asset Liability Management of various institutions, in particular insurance companies, based on a dual VaR constraint for the asset and the surplus. A key ingredient of this approach is a flexible modelling of the term structure of interest rates leading...

The recent macro-finance yield curve literature does not agree neither about term premia empirical properties nor about the importance or even the direction of its relationship with future economic activity. This paper proposes a two-step approach to handle both problems. First, in a VAR...

We propose a new methodology for the analysis of impulse response functions in VAR or VARMA models. More precisely, we build our results on the non ambiguous notion of innovation of a stochastic process and we consider the impact of any kind of new information at a given date $t$ on the future...

We propose a new methodology for the analysis of impulse response functions in VAR or VARMA models. More precisely, we build our results on the non ambiguous notion of innovation of a stochastic process and we consider the impact of any kind of new information at a given date t on the future...