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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260642
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Berechnung trendbereinigter Indikatoren für Deutschland mit Hilfe von Filterverfahren
Stamfort, Stefan - 2005
This paper discusses various approaches to decompose economic time series into their trend and cyclical components. For over 30 years now, the Deutsche Bundesbank publishes trend-adjusted indicators in its Statistical Supplement 4 entitled ?Seasonally Adjusted Business Statistics? which are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295687
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Classification of German business cycles using monthly data
Heilemann, Ullrich; Münch, Heinz Josef - 2001
The recent renaissance of business cycle analysis has led to a renewed interest in business cycle classification as pioneered by Burns/Mitchell, Spiethoff and resumed in the seventies by Meyer/Weinberg (1975a, b). The rather successful elaboration and test of a “modern” four-phase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316691
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Stilisierte Fakten und internationale reale Konjunkturmodelle
Gail, Michael (contributor) - 1998
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001371702
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Exchange rate volatility effects on the German labour market : a survey of recent results and extensions
Buscher, Herbert S.; Müller, Claudia - 1999
In this paper, a survey on theoretically expected and empirically proved impacts of exchange rate volatility is given. With regard to the West German unemployment, the effects of volatility are empirically analysed using three different volatility measures and four country groups. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001362959
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Extensive versus intensive margin over the business cycle : new evidence for Germany and the United States
Herzog-Stein, Alexander; Nüß, Patrick - 2016
(Veränderung der Arbeitsstunden je Erwerbstätigen) für die Veränderung des Arbeitsvolumens im Konjunkturverlauf in Deutschland und … Bedeutung in Deutschland im Zeitverlauf erheblich. Generell spielt die intensive Margin in Deutschland eine größere Rolle als in … Margin in Deutschland, unabhängig von der Wahl des Glättungsparameters. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011433362
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Structural unemployment and the output gap in Germany : evidence from an SVAR analysis within a hysteresis framework
Fritsche, Ulrich; Logeay, Camille - 2002
The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437007
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437017
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Non-linear effects of fiscal policy in Germany : a Markov-switching approach
Höppner, Florian; Wesche, Katrin - 2000 - This version: July 2000
Keynesian theory suggests that a reduction in government expenditure has a negative effect on private demand and therefore on output. Contrary, neoclassical theory argues that reduced public expenditure makes room for an expansion of the private sector and thus has a stimulating effect on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011540071
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Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet - Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten
Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543222