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Informal work along the business cycle : evidence from Argentina
Albertini, Julien; Poirier, Arthur; Sopraseuth, Thepthida - In: IZA Journal of development and migration 11 (2020) 1/19, pp. 1-16
employment, informal employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation. We compute the contribution of each transition rate to … fluctuations in unemployment and informality rates. We identify five stylized facts: (i) Nearly 40% of the fluctuations in the … unemployment rate involves unemployment ins and outs from/to informal jobs. (ii) More than 40% of the fluctuations in informality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012415847
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Do reemployment programs for the unemployed work for youth? : evidence from the Great Recession in the United States
Michaelides, Marios; Mueser, Peter R.; Smith, Jeffrey A. - 2020
We present experimental evidence on the effects of four U.S. reemployment programs for youth Unemployment Insurance (UI …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012232672
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Impact of the Great Recession on industry unemployment : a 1976-2011 comparison
Takhtamanova, Yelena F.; Sierminska, Eva - 2016
This paper studies the mechanisms driving the persistently high unemployment rate during the last recession and mild …, we propose a methodology to decompose changes in the unemployment rate into worker inflows and outflows across industry …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011580821
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Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes : Costs of Political Misalignment
Bircan, Cagatay - 2019
We use data on credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province. There is considerable tactical redistribution: state-owned banks increase credit in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894176
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Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes : Costs of Political Misalignment
Bircan, Cagatay - 2019
We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province. There is considerable tactical redistribution: state-owned banks increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894213
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Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes : Costs of Political Misalignment
Bircan, Cagatay - 2019
We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896140
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Regulatory Cycles : Revisiting the Political Economy of Financial Crises
Dagher, Jihad C. - 2018
Financial crises are traditionally analyzed as purely economic phenomena. The political economy of financial booms and busts remains both under-emphasized and limited to isolated episodes. The policy discussions and economic literature generated by the most recent wave of financial crises have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012936206
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Electoral Cycles in Macroprudential Regulation
Müller, Karsten - 2020
Do politics matter for macroprudential policies? I show that changes in macroprudential regulation exhibit a predictable electoral cycle in the run-up to 221 elections across 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Policies restricting mortgages and consumer credit are systematically looser before...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852520
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Political Cost of Default and Business Cycle in Emerging Countries
Prosperi, Lorenzo - 2020
Sovereign default models successfully explain business cycle in emerging economies by matching the stylized facts of main economic aggregates in normal and default periods but they usually fail to reproduce both the large levels of debt and spread observed in the data. We introduce political...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854950
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Fiscal Policy, Endogenous Political Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations
Borah, Abhinash - 2015
We argue that when fiscal policy is endogenously determined, the incentives of redistributive politics associated with its formulation can endogenously add to the uncertainty and volatility that an economy faces. In particular, small shocks may get translated into large fluctuations. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013022383