We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log- linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the valuation anchor. We...

We provide the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are well-populated, but are unreliable outside the...

The same firm characteristics that help explain cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns, such as size, book-to-market and the earnings yield, also help explain cross-sectional variation in returns to trading in option-implied stock return volatility. This empirical phenomenon is...

This study finds that the association between future stock returns and information quality depends on how option-like is the firm's equity. Firms that have more growth options are more option-like. The association between future stock returns and information quality is negative (positive) for...

In this article I discuss Penman (2016), titled “Valuation: Accounting for Risk and the Expected Return.” Penman (2016) is important because it offers potential insights that can help us understand why the book-to-market ratio and other accounting-based variables may impact expected stock...

Using a popular return decomposition, we show that expected returns should on average be positively associated with future return on equity (ROE), controlling for the book-to-market ratio (BM). However, we find that none of the commonly-used implied cost of equity capital estimates (ICCs), which...

We study the use of firms' book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also becoming worse at forecasting...

We develop a measurement-error framework for assessing the quality of relative-performance metrics designed to filter out the systematic component of performance, and analyze relative total shareholder return (rTSR)-the predominant metric market participants use to isolate managers'...