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Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers … of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on … economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528
disappointing promisees' expectations, regardless of whether those expectations were induced by a promise (expectations per se … effect). Third, they are even more motivated to avoid disappointing promisees' expectations when those expectations were …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011581987
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We report on the results of an experiment designed to disentangle behavioral biases in information aggregation of committees. Subjects get private signals about the state of world, send binary messages, and finally vote under either majority or unanimity rules. Committee decisions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014442413
This study proposes an analytical framework towards behavioral political economy of institutional change. It considers institutional changes as central government’s choices under uncertainty, which are largely driven by the strategic outcomes in a behavioral coordination game between local...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404541
Economic Forecasting. Experimental Evidence on Individual Biases, Group Cooperation and Herd Behavior... …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010463079
Each member of a group receives a signal about the unknown state of the world and decides upon a utility-maximizing recommendation on the basis of that signal. The individuals have identical preferences. The group makes a decision that maximizes the common utility function assuming perfect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011684935
Economists tend to assume that agents maximize their expected utility. However, many different experiments have questioned expected utility maximization by showing that human behavior can be characterized as random. This paper proposes Thompson Sampling as a theory of human behavior across very...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307880