Naïve 1 forecasts are often used as a benchmark when assessing the accuracy of a set of forecasts. A ratio is obtained to show the upper bound of a forecasting method's accuracy relative to naïve 1 forecasts when the mean squared error is used to measure accuracy. Formulae for the ratio are...

Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods...