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Der Ukraine-Krieg belastet durch das Emporschnellen der Energiepreise und den Produktionsstopp in wichtigen ukrainischen Zulieferbetrieben unmittelbar die wirtschaftliche Aktivität in Deutschland. Daher werden zwei Szenarien prognostiziert, die die kriegs- und sanktionsbedingten Unsicherheiten...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013364516
We analyse the relationship between the debt to GDP ratio and real per capita GDP growth for the euro area members by distinguishing between periods of sustainable and non-sustainable debt. Thresholds are theory-based and depend on the macroeconomic framework. If the interest rate exceeds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010310746
Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models combine microeconomic behavioural foundations with a full-system Bayesian likelihood estimation approach using key macro-economic variables. Because of the usefulness of this class ofmodels for addressing questions regarding the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317112
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317140
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317715
Following a severe contraction in the early 1990s, the Swedish economy accumulated a strong record of output growth coupled with a disappointing performance in the labor market. As of 2005, hours worked per person 20-64 years of age are 10.5 percent below the 1990 peak and a mere one percent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320044
I revisit the potential costs and benefits for Sweden of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) of the European Union. I first show that the Swedish business cycle since the mid-1990s has been closely correlated with the Euro area economies, suggesting that common shocks have been an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320726
There is no consensus about the causes of the reduction in business cycle volatility seen in many major economies over the last decade. Using stylised models of the economies of the US, Euro area, UK and Japan, we argue that economic stability has been fostered by improved monetary policy and by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261075
Does democracy promote economic development? This paper reviews recent attempts to address this question that exploited within-country variation. It shows that the answer is largely positive, but also depends on the details of democratic reforms. First, the sequence of economic vs political...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261420
This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia's ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265590