We assess the sustainability of the public finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS), allowing for possible non-linearities in the form of threshold behaviour of the fiscal authorities. We provide some evidence of fiscal sustainability when debt gets "too high" relative to a...

We extend previous work on the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint by allowing for non-linear adjustment of the fiscal variables, conditional on (i) the sign of budgetary disequilibria and (ii) the phase of the economic cycle. Further, our endogenously estimated...

This paper models the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on graduates and non-graduates in the UK. We use a model that is designed around key features of the UK labour market: (i) graduates typically earn higher wages and enjoy greater job security than non-graduates; (ii) many graduates are...