I derive two valid forecasting models of the equity premium in monthly frequency, based on little more than no-arbitrage: A “predictability timing” version of partial least squares, given that predictability is theoretically time varying; and a least squares model with realized market...

Is return predictability sufficient to generate excess returns? I document excess returns associated with investment strategies whose asset allocation varies proportionally to dividend yields and dynamically on a monthly frequency. These strategies are simple in the sense that they are...

With new annual data of 16 developed countries across bond, equity, and housing markets, I study the return predictability using the payout-price ratios, i.e., coupon price, dividend price, and rent price. None of the 48 country-asset combinations shows consistent in-sample and out-of-sample...

Several articles in highly regarded news outlets over the last decade have argued that firms holding relatively more cash are favored by investors. The contention is those firms holding cash will have better access to good investment prospects. This view contradicts the Jensen (1986) free cash...

We examine the predictive effect of sentiment on the cross-section of stock returns across different economic states. The degree of mispricing and the subsequent price correction can be different between economic expansion and recession because of the limits of arbitrage and short sale...

Stock markets proved to be statistically predictable on an economically interesting scale over the past decade by fully data driven automatically constructed maps that associate to a set of new factor values a return prediction that is the average of historically observed returns for an area in...

Noisy markets need extensive descriptions that are noisy themselves, such as deep regression trees that capture many data-local nonlinear anomalies and that do not require arbitrary weighting schemes like traditional linear multifactor models often do. Simple tools allow extraction of general...

This paper tests the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts, contributing to the existing literature using a rolling-event approach. We construct a monthly economic surprises index, aggregating several macroeconomic news surprises for the nine largest economic areas (G9), which we further analyze...

We implement a recursive out-of-sample method to examine anomalies-based ex-ante predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We obtain a series of simulated out-of-sample returns, consistent with investors using only prior information when choosing predictor variables. We find that, by...

In contrast to previous studies, we redefine the category of "rationality" from the perspective of investors' pursuit for wealth maximization. Using the data from Chinese stock market, this paper studies the impact of rational and irrational sentiment on asset returns from short-term to...