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Low inflation : high default risk AND high equity valuations
Bhamra, Harjoat Singh; Dorion, Christian; Jeanneret, … - 2018
We develop an asset-pricing model with endogenous corporate policies that explains how inflation jointly impacts real asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal coupons and sticky profitability. Taken together, these two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011941263
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Bankruptcy and the COVID-19 crisis
Wang, Jialan; Yang, Jeyul; Iverson, Benjamin; Kluender, … - 2020
We examine the impact of the COVID-19 economic crisis on business and consumer bankruptcies in the United States using real-time data on the universe of filings. Historically, bankruptcies have closely tracked the business cycle and contemporaneous unemployment rates. However, this relationship...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012511297
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Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area
Castrén, Olli; Dées, Stéphane; Zaher, Fadi - 2008
Modelling the link between the global macro-financial factors and firms’ default probabilities constitutes an elementary part of financial sector stress-testing frameworks. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive(GVAR) model and constructing a linking satellite equation for the firm-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604921
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Bottom-up leading macroeconomic indicators : an application to non-financial corporate defaults using machine learning
Pike, Tyler; Sapriza, Horacio; Zimmermann, Tom - 2019
This paper constructs a leading macroeconomic indicator from microeconomic data using recent machine learning techniques. Using tree-based methods, we estimate probabilities of default for publicly traded non-financial firms in the United States. We then use the cross-section of out-of-sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182392
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Pricing default risk : the good, the bad, and the anomaly
Ferreira Filipe, Sara; Grammatikos, Theoharry; Michala, … - 2014
While empirical literature has documented a negative relation between default risk and stock returns, the theory suggests that default risk should be positively priced. We provide an explanation for this "default anomaly", by calculating monthly probabilities of default (PDs) for a large sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011861135
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Derivatives and default risk
Scholz, Sebastian - 2010
Upstream producers that possess market power, sell forwards with a lengthy duration to regional electricity companies (REC). As part of the liberalization of the electricity market, RECs have been privatized and exposed to a possible bankruptcy threat if spot prices have fallen below their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951795
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Macroeconomic impact on expected default frequency
Åsberg, Per (contributor); Shahnazarian, Hovick (contributor) - 2008
We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003618542
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The COVID-19 insolvency gap : first-round effects of policy responses on SMEs
Dörr, Julian Oliver; Murmann, Simona; Licht, Georg - 2021
COVID-19 placed a special role to fiscal policy in rescuing companies short of liquidity from insolvency. In the first … focusing on firms’ pre-crisis financial standing, we estimate the extent to which the policy response induced an insolvency gap … measures being focused on smaller firms, we also examine whether this insolvency gap differs with respect to firm size. Based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012434436
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COVID-19 and SME failures
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; … - 2020
We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost minimization and measure each firm's liquidity shortfall during and after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392364
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The impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on credit risk in the euro area corporate sector
Lo Duca, Marco; Moccero, Diego; Parlapiano, Fabio - 2024
We analyse the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on corporate credit risk as measured by firms' probabilities of default (PDs) for the four largest euro area countries. We estimate the impact of shocks on one-year PDs using local projections (LP). For the period 2014-19, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484468