In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for...

In this paper we assess the system-wide economic impact of the key financial instruments adopted by the European Union for the implementation of the regional policy: The Structural funds and The Cohesion Funds. We take a bottom-up approach by aggregating the 86 categories of expenditures defined...

This study investigates the economic impact of a recent proposal for a common corporate tax base (CCTB), European Commission (2016a), and a common consolidated corporate tax base with formula apportionment (CCCTB) within the EU, European Commission (2016b). On top of the common base, it...

This report compares R&D modelling approaches in four macroeconomic models used by the European Commission for ex-ante policy impact assessment: one Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model - QUEST; one Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model - RHOMOLO; one Computable...

Microsimulation models are increasingly used to calibrate macro models for tax policy analysis. Yet, their potential remains underexploited, especially in order to represent the non-linearity of the tax and social benefit system and interactions between capital and labour incomes which play a...

Current best practice in central banking views a high level of monetary policy predictability as desirable. A clear distinction, however, has to be made between short-term and longer-term predictability. While short-term predictability can be narrowly defined as the ability of the public to...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...

We show that the news is a rich source of data on distressed firm links that drive firm- level and aggregate risks. The news tends to report about links in which a less popular firm is distressed and may contaminate a more popular firm. This constitutes a contagion channel that yields...

This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of extreme observations, for instance those produced...