In the paper we present the application of risk neutral measure estimation in the analysis of the index WIG20 from Polish stock market. The risk neutral measure is calculated from the process of the options on that index. We assume that risk neutral measure is the mixture of lognormal...

Using high-frequency price and volume data from several large exchanges, we show that FOMC and CPI announcements have a massive impact on Bitcoin's realized volatility and volume. However, this effect is a recent phenomenon, which started as inflation rose at the beginning of 2021. We also...

In this paper, we derive a closed-form explicit model-free formula for the (Black-Scholes) implied volatility. The method is based on the novel use of the Dirac Delta function, corresponding delta families, and the change of variable technique. The formula is expressed through either a limit or...

The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in...

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...

We find that exogenous structural shocks caused by terrorist attacks, wars, political turmoil and gold market specific events have a strong role to play in the analysis of dynamic relationships between gold and stock market returns. Our main finding is that the interaction between the gold...

I use five separate measures of deviation from Put-Call Parity of options on a stock without splits or dividends as separate negative measures for market efficiency. I rely upon the theory of trading volume as a function of short sales costs, etc., and that of market efficiency as a function of...

We examine the cross-section of international equity risk premia with machine learning methods. We identify, classify, and calculate 88 market characteristics and use them to forecast country returns with various machine learning techniques. While all algorithms produce substantial economic...

This paper compares the forecasting and hedging performance of 11 CAPM beta estimators across 54 international stock markets. The Welch (2022) age-decayed slope-winsorized beta estimator ranks first in predicting future realized OLS betas in 46 markets and is always within the top 3 performers....