In this article we derive risk-neutral option price formulas for both plain-vanilla and exotic electricity futures derivatives on the basis of diverse arithmetic multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck spot price models admitting seasonality, while – in order to avoid “information...

From interbank interest rate option prices, we obtain the implied market expectations for interest rates using a genetic algorithm and a multifactor term structure model. We further analyse how those expectations differ for a subset of options and futures, and whether those expectations...

This work addresses the impact of imperfections, such as information asymmetry and market sentiment, on the performance of option pricing models. More precisely, this work compares the option pricing model of Black and Scholes and the same model in the presence of imperfections. This study is...

This paper improves continuous-time variance swap approximation formulas to derive exact returns on benchmark VIX option portfolios. The new methodology preserves the variance swap interpretation that decomposes returns into realized variance and option implied-variance.We apply this new...

We identify a feedback loop between fire sales and equity option returns. The demand effect of fire sales induced by mutual fund extreme outflows decreases delta-hedged put option returns by 4-10% per year and increases the expensiveness by 2.5%. We address endogenous concerns using instrumental...

We investigate the cross-sectional return predictability of delta-hedged equity options using machine learning and big data. Drawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we find that allowing for nonlinearities significantly increases the out-of-sample...

In this paper, we present a new precipitation model based on a multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck approach of pure-jump type. In this setup, we derive a representation for the related precipitation swap price process and infer its risk-neutral time dynamics. We further deduce a pricing formula for...

The research in this paper is focused on the innovative range-based volatility models introduced in Alizadeh, Brandt, and Diebold (2002) (hereafter ABD). We develop new option pricing models using multi-factor diffusion approximations couched within this theoretical framework and examine their...

We examine the effects of limited investor attention on stock returns by using Google search volume index to measure investor attention. We also investigate whether national culture and market development have any role in this relationship. We find that the impact of investor attention on stock...

This study compares the performances of neural network and Black-Scholes models in pricing BIST30 (Borsa Istanbul) index call and put options with different volatility forecasting approaches. Since the volatility is the key parameter in pricing options, GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive...