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On the method appropriate to Hayek studies

Scheall, Scott - 2018

The method appropriate to the historical and conceptual investigation of Hayek’s ideas is implicit in his own writings on the methodology of disciplines that study complex phenomena. The phenomena of Hayek’s career are complex phenomena requiring a method appropriate to this complexity.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899124

Lesser degrees of explanation : further implications of F. A. Hayek's methodology of sciences of complex phenomena

Scheall, Scott - In: Erasmus journal for philosophy and economics : EJPE 8 (2015) 1, pp. 42-60

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299610

Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058

Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2024

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015084332

Fiscal forecasting rationality among expert forecasters

Chocobar, Belen; Claeys, Peter; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 3, pp. 941-959

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015374211

Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems

Graefe, Andreas - 2014

A reanalysis and extension of Montgomery, Hollenbach, and Ward (2012) shows that the predictive performance of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) strongly depends on the conditions of the forecasting problem. EBMA is of limited value in situations with small samples and many component...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063915

Predicting Erroneous Convictions : A Social Science Approach to Miscarriages of Justice

Gould, Jon B.; Carrano, Julia; Leo, Richard A.; Young, … - 2014

The last thirty years have seen an enormous increase not only in the exonerations of innocent defendants but also academic scholarship on erroneous convictions. This literature has identified a number of common factors that appear frequently in erroneous conviction cases, including forensic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014159998

The European Union GDP Forecast Rationality Under Asymmetric Preferences

Christodoulakis, Nikos; Mamatzakis, Emmanuel - 2022

This paper examines the behaviour of the demand for money in Greece during 1976:1-2000:4, a period that included many of the influences that cause money-demand instability. Two empirical methodologies, vector error correction (VEC) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080674

Assessor Rationality Across Differing Forecast Series

Vonnegut, Andrew - 2015

Extensive empirical studies on the rationality of expectations as defined by Muth have revolved around tests on a … single series of forecast data, with results differing widely across studies. Rationality as an assessor characteristic has … long been of interest in economic theory and practice. However, as non-replicated events, single series tests do not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014138043

Rational Predictability of Real Estate Prices

Yoshida, Jiro - 2016

Serial correlations in asset prices are often associated with irrational investment decisions (e.g., speculative bubbles) or inefficient markets. This paper shows that even asset prices determined rationally in an efficient market become predictable if underlying cash flows contain predictable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002340