This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

In this paper, we develop a Twitter-based measure of public sentiment that is useful for measuring the economic policy uncertainty that impacts individual decisions for Turkey. We extract a Twitter-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (TEPU) Index based on a selected set of Twitter user accounts...

The Turkish macroeconomic experience since 2002 has been characterized by three striking trends: (1) an accelerated growth rate of income, (2) a sharp decline in the real interest rate, and (3) a sustained fall in the saving rate of different age-groups. During the same period, there has also...

Research that investigate the extent of labor market prospects on crime rates focus on conditions in a region and crime rate in that region. However, this approach neglects criminal mobility. It is also possible that an improvement in the labor market in a region may attract nonresidents, either...

Compulsory schooling increases average level of education in a country and provides other benefits, its effect on geographical distribution is, however, not obvious. We explore the effect of a sudden change in compulsory schooling in Turkey, that increased mandatory years of schooling from five...

There is a consensus that one of the most important ingredients for high and sustainable growth is human capital accumulation. Yet, a different strand of literature argues that there are some frictions in the labor markets of most countries that result in possible education-occupation...

The European Commission awarded a contract in November 2005 to a consortium composed of the TARKI Social Research Institute (Hungary), CASE, Center for Social and Economic Research (Poland) and CEPS to analyse the socio-economic developments and the process of structural reforms in what were...

In this paper, we use a novel data set containing prices from bazaars, convenience stores, and supermarkets in Istanbul to re-examine the relationship between price dispersion and inflation. Although existing evidence is mixed, we find positive and significant relationships between dispersion,...

Turkey’s customs union with the European Union in 1996 increased considerably import penetration in manufacturing while not significantly affecting the share of EU in Turkey’s trade. The study analyzes whether this impetus had a marked impact on the productive and industrial structure of...