Contrary to the expectations of those who advocated flexible exchange rates prior to 1973, Williamson, in his study on exchange rate flexibility and reserve use, presented data which suggested “the paradoxical conclusion that reserve use actually increased following the adoption of...

The money demand process in Turkey during the period 1987:1-2002:3 can be explained better in the sense of Cagan (1956) rather than in the sense of Sargent et al. (1973). Cagan assumes the exogeneity of money. Sargent et al. suggest the endogeneity of money. Implicitly, the money supply process...

This paper tests whether the exchange rates of the Czech koruna, the Hungarian forint, and the Polish zloty were anchored by market expectations concerning their euro locking rates. First, the process of the exchange rate is derived as a function of the following factors: (i) latent exchange...

This paper demonstrates effects of economic convergence processes on the foreign exchange behaviour in a monetary modelling approach. Since the exchange rate represents the relative price of two currencies, commonness of stochastic trends between the fundamental determinants of supply and demand...

In recent years support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a moving...