In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models...

This paper explores the extent to which human capital improves the economic policy competence of U.S. presidents. Several recent studies have used international data to test similar hypotheses. However, international studies suffer from a variety of comparability issues, not all of which can be...

This paper focuses on the evolution of the institutional presidency - meaning the cluster of agencies that directly support the chief of the executive - in Argentina and Brazil since their redemocratization in the 1980s. It investigates what explains the changes that have come about regarding...

We study the logic of Peronist interventionist polices and the beliefs that support them. Instead of a comprehensive approach, we focus on three elements. First, we study beliefs and values about the economic system present in Peron's speeches during the period 1943-55. Second, we study survey...

Political scientists have tended to see the powerful presidency of the 20th and the 21st centuries as being the enemy of strong political parties. But over the past quarter century, presidents have been following a more partisan path. They have been relying on their parties more for support,...

Woodrow Wilson’s rhetorical presidency has grown into the demagogic presidencies of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The demagogic presidency is defined in terms of Weberian charisma, as a secular political prophet with soulless followers. The cause of this development is “lower case c”...

We study the logic of Peronist interventionist polices and the beliefs that support them. Instead of a comprehensive approach, we focus on three elements. First, we study beliefs and values about the economic system present in Peron's speeches during the period 1943-55. Second, we study survey...

Much of the debate in Republican circles for the last several election cycles has been about how Republican presidents always disappoint in office, never stand strongly enough for conservative principles and compromise too much with Democrats. It is debatable whether a Republican president who...

The economic agenda of the Trump Administration, if implemented, will have large and long-lasting impacts on the US and global economies. This paper uses a global economic model to assess the consequences of President Trump's likely economic program on the world economy. The model has 17 major...