This paper conducts a USDTRY rate forecast by ARIMA method using 3,069 daily observations between the dates of 3 … forecast using ARIMA method generate static models, and none of them conduct multi-step prediction or out of sample fit. The …

most accurate, and when you want to avoid large errors. Compared with errors of the typical individual forecast, combining …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the … frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate …. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces markedly more accurate predictions relative to the standard forecast …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …