For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

Vladimir Putin underestimated the war against Ukraine on several levels, both in terms of the response within Ukraine and, above all, in terms of the response from the US and Europe. What can we learn from this? What policies should Europe pursue? What signals should it send to Putin to prevent...

A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected asset returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section...

The institutional arrangements governing the creation of money in the United States have changed dramatically since the Revolution. Yet beneath the surface the story of wartime money creation has remained much the same. During wars against minor powers, the government was able to fund the war by...

This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a...

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War I on wage growth in the manufacturing sectors of U.S. states and cities from 1914 to 1919. The hypothesis is that both events caused a decrease in manufacturing labor supply, thereby initially increasing...

Why do wars occur? We exploit a natural experiment to test the longstanding hypothesis that leaders declare war because they fail to internalize the associated costs. We test this moral hazard theory of conflict by compiling data on 9,210 children of 3,693 U.S. legislators who served in Congress...

This contribution assesses the legitimacy of the Second Gulf War under international law through the lens of its human costs, exploring aspects such as the purported humanitarian nature of the intervention, the consistency of the warfare means and tactics employed with humanitarian law, and the...

The institutional arrangements governing the creation of money in the United States have changed dramatically since the Revolution. Yet beneath the surface the story of wartime money creation has remained much the same. During wars against minor powers, the government was able to fund the war by...