The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...

This paper presents a model of current account determination, based upon the permanent-income hypothesis. A present-value relationship among the current account, changes in net output, the exchange rate and the terms of trade is derived and the implications of such a relationship are tested...

Import and export stability is examined under two alternative nominal exchange rate anchors, the U.S. dollar and the SDR. Stability under the two pegs depends critically on import and export elasticity with respect to exchange rates. The implications of import and export elasticity for an...

This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7...

This paper studies a dynamic-optimizing model of a small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G7...

The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...