The track record of a sixteen-year history of density forecasts of state tax revenue in Iowa is studied, and potential improvements sought through a search for better performing "priors" similar to that conducted two decades ago for point forecasts by Doan, Litterman, and Sims (Econometric...

Recent studies have documented the existence of a "predictability smile" in the term structure of interest rates: spreads between long maturity rates and short rates predict subsequent movements in interest rates provided the long horizon is three months or less or if the long horizon is two...

The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a...

The track record of a sixteen-year history of density forecasts of state tax revenue in Iowa is studied, and potential improvements sought through a search for better performing priorsʺ similar to that conducted two decades ago for point forecasts by Doan, Litterman, and Sims (Econometric...

This paper develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia's (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals...

This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. We then quantify the relative importance of...

We use recent statistical tests, based on a 'distance' between the model and the Hansen-Jagannathan bound, to compute the rejection rates of true models. For asset-pricing models with time-separable preferences, the finite-sample distribution of the test statistic associated with the...