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systematically bias their earnings forecasts. Taken together, both drivers explain about 42% of the variability in earnings forecast …We predict and find that revisions are driven by the same determinants as forecast errors. In addition to the intuitive … downward revision to compensate for the initial induced forecast optimism …
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are unable to identify the management forecast bias, but that they unravel the bias subsequently as it is revealed. While … management forecast bias behavior is purely unintentional. Overall, our evidence suggests that managers issue biased forecasts … announcement – a practice referred to as the “bundling” of earnings information. We examine whether managers bias these forecasts …
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We address whether analysts bias earnings forecast revisions and convey the bias using forecast revision consistency, i … forecast revision consistency to convey information about bias in their earnings forecast revisions ….e., the extent to which analyst reports with earnings forecast revisions include stock recommendation and target price …
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Using a value-weighted rather than an equally weighted regression, Easton and Sommers (2007) show that the upward bias … that the impact of any bias attributable to analysts' forecasts can be reduced to a statistically insignificant 0 ….4%. Second, we show that our estimates of the implied equity risk premium after removing the effect of this bias are between 3 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128708
The "home bias" phenomenon states that empirically, economic agents often under-utilize opportunities beyond their … country borders, and it is well-documented in various international pricing and purchase patterns. This bias manifests in the … than theoretically predicted to be optimal. Our paper documents another form of home bias, where market participants appear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136584
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside. When the omitted downside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137374
When the yield curve is modelled using an a ffine factor model, residuals may still contain relevant information and do not adhere to the familiar white noise assumption. This paper proposes a pragmatic way to improve out of sample performance for yield curve forecasting. The proposed adjustment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085245