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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001711446
rate. The new model is within a broader theory that includes risk effectsnormally excluded, SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge … Ahead Theory. We use SKAT to analyse outliers inour experimental results, and indicate some new directions and foci for … ; IMF ; exchange rate regime ; exchange rate volatility ; experiment ; SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory ; monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003612866
In January 1995, four Latin American countries, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay joined their destinies within a common and ambitious enterprise called MERCOSUR. MERCOSUR, the Common Market of the South, represents an important economic integration area that generates a GDP of $US 600...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011927570
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The inability to reconcile observed levels of foreign exchange rate volatility with predictions derived from rational expectations models represents one of the most persistent challenges in international finance. This paper shows that such excess volatility puzzles arise from informational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010514297
In this paper we propose a generalisation of the noise trader transmission mechanism to examine the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rates. Within a heterogeneous expectations exchange rate model intervention operations are supposed to provide support to either chartist or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431685
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The switch to floating exchange rates during the 1970s has given economists the first comprehensive opportunity to assess the arguments for and against floating. Much new work has been done on various aspects of floating exchange rate behaviour. This article attempts a limited survey of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011553576
Previous assessments of forecasting performance of exchange rate models have focused upon a narrow set of models typically of the 1970's vintage. The canonical papers in this literature are by Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1988), who examined monetary and portfolio balance models. Succeeding works by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011521412
In this paper we develop a model of the exchange rate. The existence of transactions costs introduces an important non-linearity. Agents have different beliefs about the future exchange rate. We show that this simple model creates great complexity in the market which is characterised by the fact...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539052