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Exchange rate forecasting : the errors we've really made

Faust, Jon; Rogers, John H.; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2001

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001629737

On the predictability of global stock returns

Hjalmarsson, Erik (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002569991

Predicting Life Expectancy : A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis

Hendricks, Audrey; Graves, Philip E. - 2009

Most economic research on life expectancy focuses on building forecasting models using mortality trends or constructing parameter life expectancy models with samples of individuals. We here provide a cross-sectional model of life expectancy, using a comprehensive worldwide sample, which analyses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014203771

Exchange Rate Forecasting : The Errors We've Really Made

Faust, Jon; Rogers, John H.; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2003

made at the time, and compare them to a random walk alternative. The resulting "time series" of forecast performance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014119846

Effects of Fiscal Contractions : The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements

Hjelm, Goran - 2003

We examine the importance of exchange rate and money supply movements for the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal contractions and find: (i) contractions associated with a favorable macroeconomic outcome have been preceded by significantly higher real depreciations as compared to contractions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014106899

On the Predictability of Narrative Fiscal Adjustments

de Cos, Pablo Hernández - 2015

In an influential paper, Devries et al. (2011) construct narrative series of tax- and spending-based fiscal adjustments for a panel of OECD countries. In this paper, we find that the adjustments based on spending cuts can be predicted on the basis of past output growth and other macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020677

Fiscal Implication of Ageing : Projections of Age-Related Spending

Dang, Thai-Thanh; Antolin, Pablo; Oxley, Howard - 2004

This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014028800

How Much Do Educational Outcomes Matter in OECD Countries?

Hanushek, Eric Alan - 2010

Existing growth research provides little explanation for the very large differences in long-run growth performance across OECD countries. We show that cognitive skills can account for growth differences within the OECD, whereas a range of economic institutions and quantitative measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136356

Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates

Engel, Charles - 2012

forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no … rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by … improve on the forecast of a "no change" benchmark in the late (1999-2007) but not early (1987-1998) parts of our sample …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100676

Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates Revisited

Wu, Jyh-Lin - 2012

This paper constructs factor-based fundamental exchange rates with independent component factors and then re-examines the superiority of factor models in out-predicting nominal exchange rates. By applying the panel data of 17 OECD countries over the period 1973-2011, this article finds that both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105696