Sephton (2020) demonstrated that nearly all national and relative CO2 emissions in a group of 33 nations were mean-reverting after making allowance for non-linear deterministics and first-order autocorrelation. This suggested that a permanent reduction in emissions could only be accomplished...

Recent work has suggested that precious metals can be used as inflation hedges in several African nations. A closer examination of the data suggests there is little merit to using precious metals for this purpose. While consumer prices, platinum prices, and (potentially) the exchange rate may be...

A number of recent articles have examined the ability of financial variables to predict recessions. In this article, Peter Sephton extends the literature by considering a non-linear, nonparametric approach to predicting the probability of recession using multivariate adaptive regression splines...

Empirical support for purchasing power parity is mixed with results dependent on the time frame and countries under examination, the methodology employed, attempts to control for aggregation bias in the data, and whether adjustments are made to account for productivity differences across...