We study a model of managerial incentive problems where a manager chooses the first two moments of his firm's profit … distribution - mean and volatility - along an efficient frontier. Assuming that managers differ with respect to their marginal cost … of effort and their risk aversion we explore our model's comparative statics predictions in full detail. If managers …

We examine whether attribution bias that leads managers who have experienced short-term forecasting success to become … overconfidence, managers who have predicted earnings accurately in the previous four quarters are less accurate in their subsequent … earnings predictions. These managers also display greater divergence from the analyst consensus and are more precise. Lastly …