We present a probabilistic forecast for the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children ("second generation") broken down by age, sex, and three types of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. East...

We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

Historically, official Norwegian mortality projections computed by Statistics Norway have consistently under-predicted life expectancy. The projected age distribution of deaths may be used to check if the official mortality projections are plausible. The aim of the paper is to verify whether the...

We analyse empirical errors observed in historical population forecasts produced by statistical agencies in 14 European countries since 1950. The focus is on forecasts for three demographic variables: fertility (Total Fertility Rate - TFR), mortality (life expectancy at birth), and migration...