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The critical role of agricultural commodities in the growth of low-income countries is examined. A combination of factors has resulted in declining agricultural prices, necessitating further increasing volumes by developing countries to maintain export earnings. But low growth in factor...
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The aim of this study is to investigate the possible contagion risk coming from energy, food and metals commodity … markets and to assess risk spillovers from biofuel to food commodity markets and from crude oil to food markets. To this … purpose, we use the delta Conditional Value-at-Risk ΔCoVaR) approach recently proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954826
We extend Jurado et al. (2015)'s forecast-error-based uncertainty measure to the international context, and construct a new measure of global uncertainty. We examine dynamic causal effects among global uncertainty and other global macroeconomic variables, and provide two important applications...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908344
Pursuing risk-based allocation across a universe of commodity assets, we find diversified risk parity (DRP) strategies … to provide convincing results. DRP strives for maximum diversification along uncorrelated risk sources. A straightforward … way to derive uncorrelated risk sources relies on principal components analysis (PCA). While the ensuing statistical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938440
and metal price risk factors are found to have explanatory power on the cross-section of currency returns, while commodity … common and oil factors do not. Although stock market risk is strongly linked to currencies in developed countries, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870354
We develop a new approach to determine investors' risk compensations for all distributional moments of a security … returns and their compensation for entropy risk. Entropy risk premium (ERP), the difference of entropy under the physical and … risk-neutral measures, indicates the cost to financially hedge against changes in risks associated with the entire return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850653
Agents who acknowledge that their models are incorrectly specified are said to be ambiguity averse, and this affects the prices they are willing to trade at. Models for prices of commodities attempt to capture three stylized features: seasonal trend, moderate deviations (a diffusive factor), and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013022682