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In this paper the foundations on which the predictive interpretation of futures prices rests are discussed, and possible reasons for the differential predictive performance of futures prices as between different commodity markets examined. The predictive performances of futures, and spot prices...
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Oats are the fourth most important crop in the United States, qfter corn, wheat and soybeans, according to area planet. The U.S. is an impotant world producer of oats, ranking second only to the U.S.S.R., although West Germany, Poland and Canada are important producers.
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In this paper, interpretative comments are offered on some established aspects of the economics of futures trading, including the nature of the equilibrium condition in the case of an inverse carrying charge, some inferences about traders' market positions made from estimates of returns, and the...
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We examine the finite sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the binary logit model with random covariates. Analytic expressions for the first-order bias and second-order mean squared error function for the maximum likelihood estimator in this model are derived, and we...
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