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I construct a new composite measure of systemic financial market stress for Canada. Compared with existing measures, it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012229875
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In the new situation with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy in Europe will have to rely more on indicators than previously under fixed rates. One of the potential indicators, the forward interest rate curve, can be used to indicate market expectations of the time-paths of future short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474301
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011697685
In the new situation with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy in Europe will have to rely more on indicators than previously under fixed rates. One of the potential indicators, the forward interest rate curve, can be used to indicate market expectations of the time-paths of future short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214576
Canada, comparing Canada with the United States and reviewing briefly what the literature says about the most likely drivers … of the rise in inequality. Data show that income inequality in Canada increased substantially during the 1980s and first … has been higher than in Canada for the last four decades, with the main differences observed at the high end of the income …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336143
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This study uses Markov-switching models to evaluate the informational content of the term structure as a predictor of recessions in eight OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that for all countries the term spread is sensibly modelled as a two-state regime-switching process. Moreover,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768273