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will continue to slow in the forecast period. We expect global GDP to expand by 3.0% this year and by 2.8% next year. World …
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The upswing of the world economy has strengthened considerably over the last year. Private consumption and exports have … more quickly than anticipated at the end of the last year. For this year we expect that world output will continue to … technological progress, wage increases are not likely to take hold easily. Therefore, the world output is expected to grow by 3 …
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Der Aufsatz untersucht einige populäre Methoden zur Messung des Output Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen sie auch erhebliche Unterschiede; insbesondere ist die Korrelation zwischen...
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Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...
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This paper discusses empirical approaches macroeconomists use to answer questions like: What does monetary policy do? How large are the effects of fiscal stimulus? What caused the Great Recession? Why do some countries grow faster than others? Identification of causal effects plays two roles in...
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