This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990 - 2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using...

There has been considerable discussion, dating back to at least the 1970s, and involving Coase and Hirshleifer among others, of the notion of "economic imperialism," the expansionist tendency of economics to move into topic areas previously considered outside the reach of economics. We trace the...

Cash dividends and rights issues on the Istanbul Stock Exchange are commonly accompanied by large stock dividend payments. This paper tests the proposition that stock dividends have no effect on company value, using a novel GARCH process with event-related intercept terms to capture induced...

This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990-2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using...

This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using...

This paper investigates the micromechanics of the Portuguese interbank money market using a unique high frequency data set from the Banco de Portugal. We analyse transaction volume, interest rates and counterpart behaviour in interbank loans. Our data covers complete details on all interbank...

Although there have been many evaluations of the Fed Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis...

In this paper we present an evaluation of forecasts of a vector of variables of the German economy made by different institutions. Our method permits one to evaluate the forecasts for each year and then if one is interested to combine the years. We use our method to determine an overall winner...