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Was in Märkten sich künftig ereignen wird, kann man nicht wissen, nur erwarten. Was man erwartet, wird in der Ökonomik probabilistisch eingearbeitet: als Risikoentscheidungen. Elena Esposito zufolge besteht unter Ökonomen aber ein fundamentales Missverständnis bezüglich der...
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theories, rank dependent utility (RDU) and cumulative prospect theory (CP) incorporate (i) but not (ii). By contrast, prospect … theory (PT) addresses (i) and (ii) by proposing an editing phase that eliminates extremely low probability events, followed … prospect theory (CCP). CCP combines the editing and decision phases of PT into one phase and does not allow for the choice of …
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We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...
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