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Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters
Engelberg, Joseph; Manski, Charles F.; Williams, Jared - 2006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003285439
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Entscheidung als zeitliche Setzung : über Narration, Fiktion, Erwartung und Zeitlichkeit in der Ökonomie
Priddat, Birger P. - 2014
Was in Märkten sich künftig ereignen wird, kann man nicht wissen, nur erwarten. Was man erwartet, wird in der Ökonomik probabilistisch eingearbeitet: als Risikoentscheidungen. Elena Esposito zufolge besteht unter Ökonomen aber ein fundamentales Missverständnis bezüglich der...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010458622
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Subjective probabilities on subjectively unambiguous events
Epstein, Larry G.; Zhang, Jiankang - 1999
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001432284
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State-dependent utility and decision theory
Drèze, Jacques H.; Rustichini, Aldo - 2000
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001461629
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Subjective probability does not exist
Zaman, Asad - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011810468
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Composite prospect theory : a proposal to combine "prospect theory" and "cumulative prospect theory"
Al-Nowaihi, Ali; Dhami, Sanjit S. - 2010
theories, rank dependent utility (RDU) and cumulative prospect theory (CP) incorporate (i) but not (ii). By contrast, prospect … theory (PT) addresses (i) and (ii) by proposing an editing phase that eliminates extremely low probability events, followed … prospect theory (CCP). CCP combines the editing and decision phases of PT into one phase and does not allow for the choice of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003954029
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The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050
Bastani, Parisa; Heywood, John B.; Hope, Chris W. - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009303829
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A forward-looking stochastic fleet model for analysing the impact of uncertainty on light-duty vehicles fuel use and emissions
Bastani, Parisa; Heywood, John B.; Hope, Chris W. - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009303837
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A generalized secretary problem
Krieger, Abba M.; Samuel-Cahn, Ester - 2014
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478105
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Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters
Engelberg, Joseph - 2010
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012761765