We use a standard new Keynesian model to evaluate the disinflation cost in a small open economy vis-à-vis a closed economy. Three measures of the cost are evaluated: the sacrifice ratio, the central bank’s loss, and the welfare of the representative agent. We show that in the small open...

The macroeconomic costs of disinflation are considered for the United States in a rational expectations macroeconometric model with sticky prices and imperfect information regarding monetary policy objectives. The analysis centers on simulation experiments using the Board’s new quarterly...

The cost of the FED maintaining a low target level of inflation is measured by Lucas (2000) and Ireland (2009) as the welfare cost of inflation based on money demand. Their estimates require stability of the money demand function. Ireland finds that money demand in the post-Volcker period is...

“Leaning against the wind” (LAW), that is, tighter monetary policy for financial-stability purposes, has costs in terms of a weaker economy with higher unemployment and lower inflation and possible benefits from a lower probability or magnitude of a (financial) crisis. A first obvious cost...

In this paper, first, we examine the history records of macroeconomic policies and identify the disinflation episodes in China since 1978 and then measure the costs of disinflation by employing the narrative method. Second, after introducing a bench-mark search model, and estimating the...

Previous studies of disinflation work with models in which firms use time-dependent strategies, changing nominal prices at intervals of fixed length. These models may be criticized for failing to allow pricing behavior to adjust after a large shift in policy regime. Consequently, this paper...

This work adds to Lucas (2000) by providing analytical solutions to two problems that are solved only numerically by the author. The first part uses a theorem in control theory (Arrow's sufficiency theorem) to provide sufficiency conditions to characterize the optimum in a shopping-time problem...

This paper examines estimates of, and drivers for, the sacrifice ratio in the United States. Three approaches are employed. The first reviews the literature on what sacrifice ratio might be expected. The second studies a generic disinflation experiment using 40 estimated macro models of the U.S....

'Leaning against the wind' (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a...