We investigate the persistence of real exchange rates using Bayesian methods. First, an algorithm for Bayesian estimation of nonlinear threshold models is developed. Unlike standard grid-based estimation, the Bayesian approach fully captures joint parameter uncertainty and uncertainty about...

Recent research has generated support to the notion that the real exchange rate adjustment is nonlinear and that the PPP half-life is faster than the puzzling 3 to 5 years based on linear models. While different nonlinear models survive the specification tests against linear ones, there is...

This paper investigates regime switching in the response of U.S. output to a monetary policy action. We find substantial, statistically significant, time variation in this response, and that this time variation corresponds to "high response" and "low response" regimes. We then investigate...

This paper investigates the extent to which modern DSGE models, which feature local currency pricing, home bias, nontraded goods and incomplete markets, can generate nonlinear real exchange rate dynamics that are consistent with those found in the time series literature using data from the...

This paper examines U.S. per capita income convergence in 1929-2002 using a panel approach based on the assumptions of multiple aggregate structural breaks and growth clubs. One novelty is that our specification explicitly allows for regional conditional convergence to the nation, while at the...