This paper adopts a general approach to investigate asymmetry in the leading explanatory power of interest-rate-based indicators of monetary policy for U.S. output. The purpose is to provide robust results by utilizing a model that does not pre-specify a particular condition under which...

We investigate the persistence of real exchange rates using Bayesian methods. First, an algorithm for Bayesian estimation of nonlinear threshold models is developed. Unlike standard grid-based estimation, the Bayesian approach fully captures joint parameter uncertainty and uncertainty about...

This paper modifies an ad hoc index originated by Eichengreen et al (1995,1996), which is often used to document financial crises in emerging markets. By assuming nonlinear dynamics in a system of financial data, we successfully develop an alternative approach that not only captures the essence...

Recent research has generated support to the notion that the real exchange rate adjustment is nonlinear and that the PPP half-life is faster than the puzzling 3 to 5 years based on linear models. While different nonlinear models survive the specification tests against linear ones, there is...