This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for estimating probability of a downturn in the economy and applies it to the 2007-2008 state of the U.S. economy with the focus on investigating the occurrence of a recession. In the methodological development, information theory (Kullback and Shannon)...

This paper presents a new Bayesian methodology for predicting a turning point in an economic system. The methodology utilizes information-theoretic measurements for assessing likelihood functions for a turning point. This methodology shows that the total information of a likelihood function...

Since the late 1970s/early 1980s, the entire U.S. economy has gone through some structural changes. Outside of the technological changes, the Federal Reserve monetary policies have probably been the main force behind these changes. These policies, known as soft-landing policies, focused on a...

On November 26, 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the U.S. economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002...