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Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the … employing the Gordon Growth Model and using an estimation process for the dividend growth rate that was suggested by Barsky and …, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably …
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Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
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The U.S. economy is characterized by large, longer term regime shifts in asset values relative to macroeconomic fundamentals. These movements coincide with shifts in the real federal funds rate in excess of a measure of the natural rate of interest, and in equity market return premia. We specify...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012984111
This paper elucidates the influence of stock market volatility on U.S. consumption using pooled mean group (PMG …) estimation of 46 states over the period from 1998 to 2017. The findings confirm that the PMG estimates of the effect of stock … market volatility on consumption are robust to the lag order, lag selection criteria, and outliers compared with the mean …
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We document large, longer-term, joint regime shifts in asset valuations and the real federal funds rate-r* spread. To interpret these findings, we estimate a novel macro-finance model of monetary transmission and find that the documented regimes coincide with shifts in the parameters of a policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234115
We find evidence of infrequent shifts, or "regimes," in the mean of the asset valuation variable <i>cay<sub>t</sub></i> that are strongly associated with low-frequency fluctuations in the real federal funds rate, with low policy rates associated with high asset valuations, and vice versa. There is no evidence...
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