The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the Central Bank of Brazil's Small-Scale Structural Model … (SSSM) as a supporting tool for the monetary policy decision process. The SSSM's CPI inflation projections accuracy for 1 to … benchmark for short run forecasts. A 'near VAR' model, with quarterly CPI inflation and output gap as the endogenous variables …

This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the … inflation. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining real activity and inflation in a period of disinflation and … normalization for the Turkish economy. -- Real activity ; inflation ; leading indicators ; out-of-sample forecasting ; combination …

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which … allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation … model also allows for a time varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on …

This paper studies monetary policy rules in a small open economy with Inflation Targeting, incomplete pass-through and …