Finite point percentile estimates of Demos and Sentana (1998), Andrews (2001) and Kluppelberg et al. (2002) deviance statistics are determined for the case of tting a null of a Gaussian random walk and the parameters lie on the boundary against the alternate univariate AR(1)-(G)ARCH(1; 1) and the...

Study was carried out to check the random behavior of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE 100 Index) during the period of past three financial years to know whether investors could generate abnormal profits during the period or otherwise. Tests used were Runs Test, ADF Test, PP Test and...

An efficient stock market plays an important role in stimulating economic development through providing a channel for mobilising domestic savings and facilitating the allocation of financial resources from dormant to more productive activities. This paper evaluates the Ugandan Securities...

In this paper the authors set out to date-stamp periods of US housing price explosivity for the period 1830–2013. They make use of several robust techniques that allow them to identify such periods by determining when prices start to exhibit explosivity with respect to its past behaviour and...

This paper examines the effectiveness of the Taylor rule in contemporary times by investigating the exchange rate forecastability of selected four Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries vis-à-vis the U.S. It employs various Taylor rule models with a...

This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

A stochastic difference game is considered in which a player wants to minimize the time spent by a controlled one-dimensional symmetric random walk {𝑋𝑛,𝑛=0,1,…} in the continuation region 𝐶:={1,2,…}, and the second player seeks to maximize the survival time in C. The process...

To analyze whether stock-market prices follow a random walk, the algebraic sign of their returns has been compared with a coin toss, which is a prominent example for a Bernoulli trial with equiprobable outcomes. Like coin tosses, signed returns lend themselves for a simple runs test for...