This paper studies the main channels through which interest rate normalization has fiscal implications in the United States. While unexpected inflation reduces the real value of government liabilities, a rising policy rate increases government financing needs because of higher interest payments...

Having sufficient fiscal capacity to tax is a key hallmark and defining feature of states, and there is a growing literature trying to explain its origins. Existing empirical evidence on fiscal capacity is scarce and focuses on large, ex-post successful territories. In this paper we study the...

We analyze the US public sector balance sheet and project it forward under the assumption that current policies remain in place. We first document the history of the balance sheet and its components since World War II, with a detailed account of its evolution during and after the global...

Rainy day funds (RDFs) are potentially an important countercyclical tool for states to stabilize their budgets and the overall economy during economic downturns. However, U.S. states have often found themselves exhausting their RDFs and having to raise tax rates or reduce expenditure while still...