This paper applies the Campbell-Shiller (1988) methodology to estimate a price dividend model with volatility and inflation risk, extending existing models in this field. The model fits the data well over the period 1979-2002 for the Euro Area, but less so for the U.S. The latter is interpreted...

This paper uses an empirical connection between real stock market indices of Germany and the USA for forecasting corresponding returns. We are starting from the random walk as the traditional forecasting model in stock market applications, extending it by co-integration. Since the cointegrating...

Dieses Papier untersucht, inwieweit Multifaktormodelle nach Fama/French (1993) am deutschen Aktienmarkt die zeitliche Streuung von Renditen abbilden und Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt erklären können. Analog zu vergleichbar angelegten Studien am US-amerikanischen, kanadischen und britischen...

This paper presents and compares several time-series models for returns of broadbased stock indices. These models nest a nonlinear asymmetric GARCH (NGARCH) model as a special case. Some of these models are empirically motivated ad-hoc specifications others are derived from a representative...

Using data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange we analyze price formation and liquidity in a non-anonymous environment with similarities to the floor of the NYSE. Our main hypothesis is that the non-anonymity allows the specialist to assess the probability that a trader trades on the basis of...

»Deflation«, »Kreditklemme« und »Bankenkrise« waren die Schlagworte in derFinanzpresse des Jahres 2003. Insbesondere hier zu Lande wurde über Monate in den Medien davon gesprochen, dass sich Deutschland in der japanischen Malaise befände. In ihrem Beitrag gehen Prof. Dr. Stephan Paul,...

Seit dem Einbruch der Aktienmärkte Anfang 2000 hat die Fed durch massive Liquiditätszufuhr versucht, die amerikanische Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren. Ein wesentliches Motiv war die Befürchtung, die amerikanische Wirtschaft könne in eine Liquiditätsfalle geraten. Motiviert von der...

We introduce a multivariate multiplicative error model which is driven by componentspecific observation driven dynamics as well as a common latent autoregressive factor. The model is designed to explicitly account for (information driven) common factor dynamics as well as idiosyncratic effects...

We examine the relationship between CEO ownership and stock market performance. Firms in which the CEO voluntarily holds a considerable share of outstanding stocks outperform the market by more than 10% p.a. after controlling for traditional risk factors. The effect is most pronounced in firms...