We modify the concept of consistent expectations equilibria introduced in Hommes and Sorger (1998) in two ways: (i) the consistency condition requires that the probability that the agents reject their perceived law of motion in any period does not exceed a given level and (ii) there may exist...

Traditional asset pricing models predict that covariance between prices of different assets should be lower than what we observe in the data. This model generates this high covariance within a rational expectations framework by introducing markets for information about asset payoffs.(...)

Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about...

We study identification in a class of linear rational expectations models. For any givenexactly identified model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalentmodels that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to show that a modelproposed by Jess Benhabib and Roger...

The paper generalizes Feldstein's criticism (Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security, 1976) of Barro's analysis (Are Government Bonds Real Net Wealth?, 1974) for the case that the interest rate exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...

A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if the hypothesis holds, then market valuations must follow a random walk. This postulate has frequently been criticized on the basis of empirical evidence. Yet the assertion itself incurs what we...

This paper derives a second-order approximation to the solution of rational expectations, dynamic, general equilibrium models. To illustrate its applicability, the method is used to solve the dynamics of a simple neoclassical model. The paper closes with a brief description of a set of MATLAB...

In a game with rational expectations, individuals simultaneously refine their information with the information revealed by the strategies of other individuals. At a Nash equilibrium of a game with rational expectations, the information of individuals is essentially symmetric: the same profile of...

We re-examine the evidence on the new Phillips curve model of Gali and Gertler (Journal of Monetary Economics 1999) using the conditional score test of Kleibergen (Econometrica 2005), which is robust to weak identification. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are...