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medium-term horizon. The economic effects of electricity shortages are also direct and indirect, but the temporal lag is … shorter than for oil disruptions. In this paper, we summarise the different ways an economy is affected by an oil shock or a … weak business and consumer confidence. The social costs of electricity shortages have immediate negative results, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014069599
medium-term horizon. The economic effects of electricity shortages are also direct and indirect, but the temporal lag is … shorter than for oil disruptions. In this paper, we summarise the different ways an economy is affected by an oil shock or a … weak business and consumer confidence. The social costs of electricity shortages have immediate negative results, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606848
medium-term horizon. The economic effects of electricity shortages are also direct and indirect, but the temporal lag is … shorter than for oil disruptions. In this paper, we summarise the different ways an economy is affected by an oil shock or a … weak business and consumer confidence. The social costs of electricity shortages have immediate negative results, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011324994
demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621702
The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107787
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836533
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
supply shock has only a limited effect on oil price. Finally, a news shock regarding oil supply shortfalls has macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215283
This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model … rates is a two-way relationship that depends on the type of oil shock. During a supply shock, rising oil prices caused … interest rates to increase; whereas during a demand shock, falling interest rates caused oil prices to rise. Record low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012752300
The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model, including the effects of (1) correcting an error in the measure of global real economic activity, (2)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230336