Showing 1 - 10 of 220,950
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958761
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486531
There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010439151
Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470341
the perspective of economic theory as well as from the perspective of the historical experiences of the countries under … model specification. Model uncertainty consists of two types: theory uncertainty, which relates to which growth determinants … draws from the same statistical model. We propose ways to account for both theory and heterogeneity uncertainty. Finally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470690
The Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form of an econometric model is introduced, and its relationship to several traditional forms of representation is discussed. The traditional forms are viewed as special cases of the Rational Structural Form. Thus, the latter provides a unified framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479058
We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480537
A common stochastic restriction in econometric models separable in the latent variables is the assumption of stochastic independence between the unobserved and observed exogenous variables. Both simple and composite tests of this assumption are derived from properties of independence empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012775542
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796023
; (1944), involved two elements: first, it placed substantial weight on a priori theory as a source of structural information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012721030