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Cogley and Sargent provide us with a very useful tool for empirical macroeconomics: a Gibbs sampler for the estimation of VARs with drifting coefficients and volatilities. The authors apply the tool to a VAR with three variables — inflation, unemployment, and the nominal interest rate — and...
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posteriors imply substantial variation of all of these objects for post WWII U.S. data. After adjusting for changes in volatility …
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Acceleration and the Great Moderation. The implication is that changing variances of shocks caused the reduction of volatility …. Smaller Fed policy errors accounted for the fall in inflation volatility. Smaller supply shocks accounted for the fall in … output volatility and smaller demand shocks for lower interest rate volatility. The same model with differing Taylor rules of …
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Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s' United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank – which is near-universally...
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than you think.", respectively. We use vector autoregression with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to …
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