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Statistical modelling of downside risk spillovers
Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012321946
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Bayesian nonparametric measurement of factor betas and clustering with application to hedge fund returns
Garay, Urbi; Horst, Enrique ter; Molina, German; … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 1, pp. 1-23
We define a dynamic and self-adjusting mixture of Gaussian Graphical Models to cluster financial returns, and provide a new method for extraction of nonparametric estimates of dynamic alphas (excess return) and betas (to a choice set of explanatory factors) in a multivariate setting. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505836
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Analyzing Hedging Strategies for Fixed Income Portfolios : A Bayesian Approach for Model Selection
Bessler, Wolfgang - 2016
government bonds had to derive new hedging strategies to deal with changing return properties and higher levels of uncertainty … hedging performance relative to unconditional hedging approaches such as OLS. The aim of this study is to test innovative … hedging strategies for EMU bond portfolios for non-crisis and crisis periods. We analyze single and composite hedges with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006511
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Dealing with drift uncertainty : a Bayesian learning approach
De Franco, Carmine; Nicolle, Johann; Pham, Huyên - In: Risks : open access journal 7 (2019) 1/5, pp. 1-18
One of the main challenges investors have to face is model uncertainty. Typically, the dynamic of the assets is modeled using two parameters: the drift vector and the covariance matrix, which are both uncertain. Since the variance/covariance parameter is assumed to be estimated with a certain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018698
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Recursive portfolio selection with decision trees
Andriyashin, Anton (contributor);  … - 2008
A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly available information. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be of nonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636039
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Portfolio allocation for European markets with predictability and parameter uncertainty
Jondeau, Eric; Rockinger, Michael - 2010
We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involving a risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequency for ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates and Bayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008797745
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Return and risk of pairs trading using a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios of stock prices
Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart F.; Dijk, Herman … - 2014
In this paper we consider two cases of pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit statistical arbitrage method. We use a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios, defined in a cointegration model, of pairs of stock prices. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259626
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Return and risk of pairs trading using a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios of stock prices
Ardia, David; Gatarek, Lukasz T.; Hoogerheide, Lennart; … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 1, pp. 1-19
We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505854
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Time-varying combinations of Bayesian dynamic models and equity momentum strategies
Basturk, Nalan; Grassi, Stefano; Hoogerheide, Lennart; … - 2016
A novel dynamic asset-allocation approach is proposed where portfolios as well as portfolio strategies are updated at every decision period based on their past performance. For modeling, a general class of models is specified that combines a dynamic factor and a vector autoregressive model and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563065
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On the correlation between commodity and equity returns : implications for portfolio allocation
Lombardi, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782578