The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of analysts' recommendation downgrades, upgrades, and reiterations on German stock returns and as to whether prof- itable investment strategies could potentially be designed around these recommendations. The paper provides a unique detailed...

We examine the value of expert picks published by SmartMoney, a popular investment periodical. Most can be described as ‘hot' stocks – those that have experienced run-ups in price prior to publication. These stocks subsequently underperform the market by 0.45% per month in the six-month...

I develop a new asset pricing theory that bridges two seemingly unrelated pricing effects from separate literatures: (1) the negative relationship between ex-ante return skewness and expected returns and (2) the negative relationship between dispersion in financial analysts' earnings forecasts...

Die Berücksichtigung der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Wechselkurses ist sowohl für internationale Unternehmen als auch für international tätige Investoren unabdingbar. Allerdings ist die Erstellung von Wechsel- kursprognosen schwierig, da bis zum heutigen Zeitpunkt kein allgemein anerkanntes...

This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...