First, we give a closed-form formula for first passage time of a reflected Brownian motion with drift. This corrects a formula by Perry et al. (2004). Second, we show that the maximum before a fixed drawdown is exponentially distributed for any drawdown, if and only if the diffusion...

An accurate weather forecast is the basis for the valuation of weather derivatives, securities that partially compensate for financial losses to holders in case of, from their perspective, adverse outside temperature. The paper analyses precision of two forecast models of average daily...

We develop a novel class of time-changed Lévy models which are tractable and readily applicable, capture the leverage effect, and exhibit pure jump processes with finite or infinite activity. Our models feature four nested processes reflecting market, volatility and jump risks, and observation...

We study the asymptotic behaviour of a class of small-noise diffusions driven by fractional Brownian motion, with random starting points. Different scalings allow for different asymptotic properties of the process (small-time and tail behaviours in particular). In order to do so, we extend some...

We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. We consider the SPY and 20 stocks that vary by sector, volume and degree of jump activity. We use...

This paper develops a fully-fledged statistical arbitrage strategy based on a mean-reverting jump-diffusion model and applies it to high-frequency data of the S&P 500 constituents from January 1998-December 2015. In particular, the established stock selection and trading framework identifies...