We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models....

The first part of this report reviews the different channels of transmission of financial shocks (including regulatory changes) highlighted in the literature in the past 15 years. While a very large number of new models have been made available since the Committee's assessment of the long-term...