We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and news-driven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of...

We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and newsdriven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of...

We use firm data classified by size to study business cycle properties for German manufacturing. We find that a Burns-Mitchell analysis of disaggregated data reveals some interesting features which are averaged out in the aggregate data. In particular, business expectations are more reliable in...

Recently, several institutions have increased their forecast horizons, and many institutions rely on their past forecast errors to estimate measures of forecast uncertainty. This work addresses the question how the latter estimation can be accomplished if there are only very few errors available...

In this paper, we investigate the implications of the two concepts of asymmetry defined by Sichel (1993) - deepness and steepness - for first-order autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept. In order to do so, we derive the two required formulas determining the coefficient of...

In this paper, we investigate the implications of the two concepts of asymmetry defined by Sichel (1993) - deepness and steepness - for first-order autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept. In order to do so, we derive the two required formulas determining the coefficient of...